https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2025_NCAA_Division_I_men%27s_basketball_tournament

Answers will be updated with seed numbers once available.

3/18 18:40 ET: #16 St Francis beats #16 Alabama St

3/19 18:40 ET: #16 Mount St Mary's beats #16 American

3/18 21:10 ET: #11 North Carolina beats #11 San Diego St

3/19 21:10 ET: #11 Xavier beats #11 Texas

3/21 14:50 ET: #16 Mount St Mary's upsets #1 Duke (East Region)

3/20 14:00 ET: #16 SIU Edwardsville upsets #1 Houston (Midwest Region)

3/20 14:50 ET: #16 Alabama St upsets #1 Auburn (South Region)

3/21 18:50 ET: #16 Norfolk St upsets #1 Florida (West Region)

3/21 12:40 ET: #15 Robert Morris upsets #2 Alabama (East Region)

3/20 18:15 ET: #15 Wofford upsets #2 Tennessee (Midwest Region)

3/21 22:00 ET: #15 Bryant upsets #2 Michigan St (South Region)

3/20 21:45 ET: #15 Omaha upsets #2 St John's (West Region)

3/20 13:30 ET: #14 Montana upsets #3 Wisconsin (East Region)

3/21 19:10 ET: #14 Troy upsets #3 Kentucky (Midwest Region)

3/21 13:30 ET: #14 Lipscomb upsets #3 Iowa St (South Region)

3/20 22:10 ET: #14 UNC Wilmington upsets #3 Texas Tech (West Region)

3/21 19:35 ET: #13 Akron upsets #4 Arizona (East Region)

3/20 12:40 ET: #13 High Point upsets #4 Purdue (Midwest Region)

3/20 19:25 ET: #13 Yale upsets #4 Texas A&M (South Region)

3/21 16:35 ET: #13 Grand Canyon upsets #4 Maryland (West Region)

3/21 22:10 ET: #12 Liberty upsets #5 Oregon (East Region)

3/20 15:15 ET: #12 McNeese upsets #5 Clemson (Midwest Region)

3/20 22:00 ET: #12 UC San Diego upsets #5 Michigan (South Region)

3/21 14:00 ET: #12 Colorado St upsets #5 Memphis (West Region)

3/20 16:05 ET: #11 VCU upsets #6 BYU (East Region)

3/21 21:45 ET: #11 Xavier upsets #6 Illinois (Midwest Region)

3/21 16:05 ET: #11 North Carolina upsets #6 Ole Miss (South Region)

3/20 19:35 ET: #11 Drake upsets #6 Missouri (West Region)

3/21 15:15 ET: #10 Vanderbilt upsets #7 St Mary's (East Region)

3/20 21:25 ET: #10 Utah St upsets #7 UCLA (Midwest Region)

3/21 19:25 ET: #10 New Mexico upsets #7 Marquette (South Region)

3/20 19:10 ET: #10 Arkansas upsets #7 Kansas (West Region)

3/21 12:15 ET: #9 Baylor upsets #8 Mississippi St (East Region)

3/20 16:35 ET: #9 Georgia upsets #8 Gonzaga (Midwest Region)

3/20 12:15 ET: #9 Creighton upsets #8 Louisville (South Region)

3/21 21:25 ET: #9 Oklahoma upsets #8 UConn (West Region)

3/22 19:10 ET: #9 Creighton beats #1 Auburn

3/22 17:15 ET: #4 Texas A&M beats #5 Michigan

3/22 18:10 ET: #11 Drake beats #3 Texas Tech

3/22 14:40 ET: #10 Arkansas beats #2 St. John's

3/22 20:40 ET: #8 Gonzaga beats #1 Houston

3/22 12:10 ET: #12 McNeese beats #4 Purdue

3/22 21:40 ET: #7 UCLA beats #2 Tennessee

3/23 17:15 ET #6 Illinois beats #3 Kentucky

3/23 18:10 ET #7 St Mary’s beats #2 Alabama

3/23 19:10 ET #12 Colorado St beats #4 Maryland

3/23 19:45 ET #6 Ole Miss beats #3 Iowa St

3/23 20:40 ET #10 New Mexico beats #2 Michigan St

3/27 20:09 ET #10 Arkansas beats #3 Texas Tech

3/28 21:39 ET #5 Michigan beats #1 Auburn

3/27 19:39 ET #4 Maryland beats #1 Florida

3/28 19:09 ET #6 Ole Miss beats # 2 Michigan St

3/28 19:39 ET #3 Kentucky beats #2 Tennessee

3/29 18:09 ET #3 Texas Tech beats #1 Florida

3/30 14:20 ET #2 Tennessee beats #1 Houston

3/30 17:05 ET #2 Michigan St beats #1 Auburn

4/7 20:50 ET: #1 Florida beats #1 Houston

Bet on every men's March Madness game here! Answers will be updated and added as the tournament progresses.

https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket

For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf.

https://www.ncaa.com/sports/basketball-men/d1

Will resolve yes for 2 teams that make it. Comment any missing teams and I will add them.

This market's resolution is based on 2024-2025 regular season win/loss record: 

 Overtime losses are counted as regular losses for the purposes of this market. Hockey games do not end in ties.

This will resolve yes when Ovechkin scores career goal number 895 (Season goal 42). Or will resolve no after the last game he plays in the regular season. 

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-ai-2027

This market resolves in January 2027. It resolves YES if the AI Futures Project's predictions seem to have been roughly correct up until that point. Some details here and there can be wrong, just as in Daniel's 2021 set of predictions, but the important through-lines should be correct.

Resolution will be via a poll of Manifold moderators. If they're split on the issue, with anywhere from 30% to 70% YES votes, it'll resolve to the proportion of YES votes. Otherwise it resolves YES/NO.

This market resolves to YES if by market close, April 30 2028, there exists at least one European cloud service provider that:

The market resolves to NO if no European cloud provider meets these criteria by market close.

: This question resolves YES if the United States federal government officially implements new tariffs targeting semiconductors imported from Taiwan, with an effective date on or before December 31, 2025.

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400

This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.

This market resolves YES if President Trump officially announces any extension, adjustment, or modification to the recently implemented tariffs before April 10, 2025. This includes changes to tariff rates, affected products, exempted countries, or implementation timelines.

The announcement must come from an official White House source or be widely reported by major news outlets.

An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

All tariffs announced on April 2, 2025 must be delayed or walked back for this market to resolve YES. Resolves NO if this is done by an act of Congress.

: "major" protests defined as over 1 million people in one city OR over 10 million people in various cities/locations within the U.S., in the same day.  Needs to be at least one reliable estimate reaching that threshold to validate (if there are conflicting reports, will resolve if one independent news source, police force, agency, etc cites numbers that qualify).  Any protests related to Trump, his administration (including Musk or similar) or his policies would count (e.g. a Women's rights march or a march to stand up for the poor inspired by cuts to funding would count).  A protest in response to a general SCOTUS decision would not count (e.g. overturning Roe), unless the SCOTUS decision was about Trump or a Trump policy (e.g. allowing Trump to run for a third term or upholding a controversial Trump policy that he would then get to enact).  Poll will close when such a protest happens or a new president is in office.

 - I'm not sure how many are digging into the resolution criteria, but this is intended to get at massive, 

 level protests, so I am revising the title to be more clear.  I am 

 changing the resolution criteria, as a number of people have already bet.  I am just trying to make the question more clear for those who don't pour over the criteria.  It would not have been a very interesting question as to whether there would be protests in his second term, as that seems quite obvious.  What this has been getting at if we would see massive, historic level protests.   For comparison, the following are protests/demonstrations that likely met the criteria (I didnt dig into source reliability for these estimates, but these have some cited estimates listed that meet it): March for Our Lives 2018, March for Women's Lives 2004, March for Lesbian, Gay and Biequal Rights 1993, Anti Nuclear March 1982, Earth Day 1970.  Also for reference, it would be about twice the numbers that showed up in D.C. and those that protested nationally for the Women's March in 2017 .

A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.

Both quarters must occur in 2025, ie Q3 and Q4 having negative GDP will resolve this market to YES. However, 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 would resolve this market to NO.

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.

Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest. 

If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter. 

If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e

Trump has claimed he will impose a 10% tariff on all countries except China, which will have a 60% tariff.

This market will resolve to YES if Trump wins the presidency, and then he imposes a 10% tariff (or greater) on at least most imports (as measured in dollar terms) to the US from all countries except China.

If Trump imposes a tariff in excess of 10%, that does count as a YES.

If Trump imposes a tariff less than 10%, that does not count.

If Trump does not win the presidency, the market resolves to NO, even if the winner imposes a tariff.

I will roll a 12 sided die until I get six unique numbers. Then, I will find the floor of the average of those six numbers. 

Trade on politics & more