Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if AI-generated content exceeds 50% of new internet content by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by the most recent peer-reviewed or industry research studies measuring the proportion of newly published web content that is primarily AI-generated. Studies should use established AI detection methodologies and measure content published during 2026 or the trailing 12-month period ending in 2026.

Key sources for resolution:

• Graphite's Five Percent research series (https://graphite.io/five-percent)

• Ahrefs AI content detection analysis (https://ahrefs.com/blog/what-percentage-of-new-content-is-ai-generated/)

• Originality.ai content analysis (https://originality.ai/ai-content-in-google-search-results)

If multiple studies exist with conflicting results, resolution will favor the most recent and methodologically rigorous study. The market resolves NO if AI-generated content remains at or below 50% of new internet content by the deadline.

Background

As of November 2024, 50.3% of new web articles were generated primarily by AI, marking a significant milestone. AI-generated articles grew from roughly 10% in late 2022 to over 40% by 2024 following ChatGPT's release. However, the share of AI-generated articles has plateaued since May 2024, with these articles largely not appearing in Google and ChatGPT despite their prevalence on the broader web. In April 2025, 74.2% of newly created web pages contained AI-generated content, though this includes pages with partial AI content rather than purely AI-generated articles.

Considerations

Measurement methodology significantly impacts results. Different studies use varying detection algorithms and definitions of "AI-generated content"—some measure purely AI-authored articles, while others count any page containing AI-generated elements. AI detectors' reliability is up for question, and there is considerable disagreement about the accuracy of AI detection algorithms. Additionally, practitioners found that AI-generated articles do not perform well in search, suggesting that even if AI content exceeds 50% of published material, it may not represent 50% of consumed content. The question's resolution depends on which metric is prioritized: raw publication volume, search-indexed content, or user-consumed content.