Resolution criteria

OpenAI announced GPT-5 on August 7, 2025, and GPT-5.2 was released in early December 2025. This market resolves YES if OpenAI announces a new GPT-5-level model (or higher) before July 1, 2026. A "GPT-5-level model" means a model that OpenAI officially designates as part of the GPT-5 family or a successor generation (GPT-6 or beyond). Announcements via official OpenAI channels (website, blog, social media, press releases) count as valid announcements. The market resolves NO if no such announcement occurs by the deadline.

Background

OpenAI moved the release of GPT-5.2 forward from its original late-December timeline in response to competitive pressure from Google's Gemini 3. Google's Gemini 3 performed better than GPT-5.1 in reasoning, coding, and general intelligence tests, prompting OpenAI to accelerate its release schedule. The competitive dynamics between OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic have intensified, with multiple frontier models released in rapid succession throughout 2025.

Considerations

OpenAI has demonstrated a pattern of frequent model updates within the GPT-5 family. GPT-5.1 was announced on November 12, 2025, just three months after GPT-5 debuted in August 2025, and GPT-5.2 followed within weeks. This cadence suggests OpenAI may continue releasing incremental updates to maintain competitive positioning. However, the distinction between minor updates (5.2, 5.3) and major new models (GPT-6) will be crucial for resolution.