Under the Rijkswet op het Nederlanderschap (RWN), the general rule for regular naturalization is 5 years of continuous lawful residence. The Dutch cabinet announced its intent to move this to 10 years. This market is about whether that change actually becomes law.

Resolution criteria:

• YES if an amendment to the RWN that sets the standard residency requirement for regular naturalization to 10 years (or more) is published in the Staatsblad (official Gazette) on or before 2026-12-31. Entry-into-force may occur later; publication in the Staatsblad with the 10-year rule is sufficient.

• NO if by 2026-12-31 no such law is published; or the standard remains <10 years; or only policy guidance changes (IND circulars) without a statutory change; or the 10-year rule applies only to narrow categories while the general rule remains 5 years.

Clarifications (edge cases):

• Exceptions (spouse of a Dutch national, recognized refugees, stateless persons, option procedure, etc.) don’t affect resolution; we care about the general/regular rule moving to 10.

• Changes only in administrative guidance or lower-level regulations (without amending RWN) do not count.

• Passage by both chambers without publication in the Staatsblad by the close date resolves NO.

• If multiple amendments pass, the text in the Staatsblad at publication time governs.

Primary sources for resolution: Staatsblad (OfficiëleBekendmakingen.nl), wetten.nl (consolidated RWN), IND official pages on naturalization.