This market will resolve to yes if the US establishes by 2028 a policy requiring certain kinds of AI incident reporting, similar to requirements in aviation or data breach reporting. The policy may allow for many incidents to be kept confidential within a regulatory body. The goal is to enable regulators to track specific types of harms and near-misses from AI systems, allowing them to identify dangers and quickly develop mitigation strategies.

Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.