Will the least expensive home humanoid robot cost less than $5,000 by the end of 2028?
Will the least expensive home humanoid robot cost less than $5,000 by the end of 2028?
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For this market to resolve "YES," the lowest retail price of any commercially available humanoid robot capable of performing basic household tidying tasks (such as picking up clutter, placing items in designated locations, and basic organizing) must drop below $5,000 USD by December 31, 2028.
Qualifying humanoid robots must:
Be bipedal or otherwise clearly humanoid in shape and mobility.
Be commercially available to regular consumers (not restricted to specialized industrial or research use).
Reliably demonstrate the capability to tidy a typical home environment, including grasping various household objects, navigating a standard residential space, and placing items appropriately without constant human intervention.
Pricing determination will be based on publicly available lowest retail prices in the U.S. market at the close of 2028.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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