Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the world has at least 100 gigawatts (GW) of operational (installed/commissioned) electrolyzer capacity used for hydrogen production before January 1st 2033.

What counts

• “Electrolyzer capacity” means nameplate electrical input capacity (GWₑ) of water electrolysis systems whose purpose is hydrogen production.

• “Operational” means installed/commissioned and capable of producing hydrogen (not merely announced, permitted, financed, or under construction).

• The global total is the sum worldwide across all countries and electrolyzer technologies (e.g., alkaline, PEM, SOEC), as long as they are deployed for hydrogen production.
  

Primary resolution source

• I will resolve based on the IEA’s reported global “installed electrolyser capacity” figure (as presented in IEA tracking such as the Global Hydrogen Review and related IEA trackers/databases).

  • If the IEA’s reported global installed electrolyser capacity is ≥ 100 GW for any point in time up to and including end of 2032, this resolves YES.

  • If the IEA’s reported global installed electrolyser capacity remains < 100 GW through end of 2032, this resolves NO.
    

Fallback (only if the IEA metric is unavailable or discontinued)

• If a clear IEA global figure is not available, I will resolve YES if at least two independent, reputable sector trackers (e.g., major energy agencies or widely-cited industry/finance analysts) explicitly report that global operational/installed electrolyzer capacity for hydrogen production is ≥ 100 GW before January 1st 2033; otherwise NO.
  

Clarifications

• This is not about electrolyzer manufacturing capacity (GW/year), project announcements, memoranda of understanding, or “pipeline” totals. Only operational/installed capacity counts.