Will “flash iron making” replicate by 2027?
Will “flash iron making” replicate by 2027?
Basic
3
Ṁ1102027
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Background
There’s been a slew of articles about a new iron making technology coming out of China. However, I’m a bit suspicious of it for a couple reasons:
I can’t find the actual journal article this is supposed to be based on anywhere. Everyone is just citing SCMP.
SCMP says it was published in the journal “Nonferrous Metals” which doesn’t make any sense given this is a ferrous metal technology.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if:
There is a demonstration (could be academic or commercial) of flash iron making showing the purported three orders-of-magnitude increase in smelting speed by 2027.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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