Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $150,000 USD at any point before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC. The market resolves to NO if Bitcoin fails to reach this price threshold within the specified timeframe.

For resolution purposes, the price will be determined based on reliable cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken. A screenshot or other verifiable evidence of the price reaching $150,000 on any major exchange will be sufficient for a YES resolution.

Background

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of approximately $100,000 in March 2024 following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. The cryptocurrency has historically moved in cycles, with significant price increases often following Bitcoin halving events (the most recent occurred in April 2024).

Several analysts have made predictions about Bitcoin's price trajectory:

• Fundstrat's Tom Lee expects Bitcoin to exceed $150,000 in 2025, citing increasing institutional acceptance and potential government support

• Some technical analysts believe Bitcoin could reach $150,000 during the current bull cycle based on historical patterns

• Blockware Solutions has outlined scenarios where Bitcoin could rise to $150,000, though they consider this a more conservative estimate compared to their bullish projections

Considerations

Bitcoin's price is highly volatile and influenced by numerous factors including regulatory developments, macroeconomic conditions, institutional adoption, and market sentiment. While some analysts project prices well above $150,000, others remain skeptical about such significant appreciation in the given timeframe.