Will at least one child be born as a result of two people meeting at Manifest 2023, by EOY 2025?
Will at least one child be born as a result of two people meeting at Manifest 2023, by EOY 2025?
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They should post here, or someone who knows about it, if it's public, can post.
No tricks.
The relationship prior to Manifest must have been non-sexual, non-romantic, and online only, if anything. They must really both meet and spark it off together for the first time at Manifest 2023.
They don't have to be intense Manifold users or people necessarily - but they must meet first either physically at, or very closely associated with, Manifest 2023 (for example an after-party or a dinner afterwards). And they must both be Manifest 2023-associated somehow (i.e. maybe tagging along with a manifold friend). If someone ends up marrying their Uber driver to the event, it doesn't count.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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