Background

Nuclear terrorism has been a concern since the end of the Cold War, particularly regarding the security of nuclear materials from the former Soviet Union. While no terrorist group has successfully detonated a nuclear weapon to date, experts continue to monitor this threat. Building or acquiring a nuclear weapon requires highly enriched uranium or plutonium, which are tightly controlled materials. Most nuclear power plants use low-enriched uranium, which is not suitable for weapons.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if a terrorist group or individual successfully detonates a nuclear weapon (fission or fusion bomb) before January 1, 2035. The attack must be confirmed by multiple credible international sources and government agencies.

The market will resolve NO if no such attack occurs before January 1, 2035.

For resolution purposes:

• A "dirty bomb" (radiological dispersal device) does NOT count as a nuclear weapon

• The perpetrator(s) must be non-state actors

• The attack must be intentional (accidental detonations don't count)

• The nuclear weapon must actually detonate (failed attempts don't count)

Considerations

While experts generally consider the likelihood of nuclear terrorism to be low due to technical and operational challenges, the possibility cannot be completely ruled out. The primary barriers include:

• Difficulty in acquiring weapons-grade nuclear materials

• Technical complexity of building a functioning nuclear device

• Enhanced security measures at nuclear facilities worldwide

• International cooperation in preventing nuclear terrorism

Traders should note that while "dirty bomb" attacks are considered more feasible, they do not qualify for resolution of this market.