Blogpost: https://substack.com/home/post/p-169188359

In July 2025, Judge William Alsup certified a class action lawsuit against Anthropic on behalf of nearly all U.S. book authors whose works were allegedly copied for AI training. The case accuses Anthropic of copyright infringement for downloading millions of pirated books from sources like LibGen and PiLiMi, which were allegedly used to train its Claude AI models.

If Anthropic loses at trial, the company could face statutory damages potentially exceeding $1.5 billion, or up to $750 billion at the theoretical maximum. A trial is tentatively scheduled for 1 December 2025.

This market resolves YES if, by 31 December 2026, a U.S. court finds Anthropic liable for copyright infringement in this class action case (not counting settlements, appeals, or separate lawsuits).

It resolves NO if no such ruling occurs by that date, including if the case is dismissed, settled, or still ongoing without a judgment.