Resolution criteria

The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the Galway West by-election triggered by President-elect Catherine Connolly vacating her seat. The by-election must be held within six months of the TD leaving the Dáil. Resolution will be determined by the official results announced by the Galway West Returning Officer, available at https://galwayreturningofficer.com/.

Background

Galway West is a parliamentary constituency in Dáil Éireann that elects five deputies using proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote (PR-STV). Sinn Féin topped the poll in the 2024 general election with Mairéad Farrell. Sinn Féin will contest the by-election and aims to win the seat to prevent it falling to the Government.

Considerations

Voters rank candidates by preference (1, 2, 3, etc.), and if their preferred candidate is eliminated or elected with a surplus, their vote transfers to their next preference. This means transfer patterns between left-leaning and government-aligned candidates could significantly influence the outcome.