Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre is declared the winner of the Carleton riding in the 2025 Canadian federal election. Official results from Elections Canada will serve as the primary source for resolution. If Poilievre does not win the Carleton seat, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

Pierre Poilievre has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for the Carleton riding since 2004, consistently securing re-election in subsequent federal elections. In 2022, he was elected leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, positioning him as the Leader of the Opposition. (en.wikipedia.org)

The 2025 federal election is scheduled for April 28, 2025. Recent political developments, including the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the rise of Mark Carney as the new Liberal leader, have introduced new dynamics into the electoral landscape. (ft.com)

Poilievre's leadership has been marked by a populist approach, focusing on personal freedoms, tax reforms, and energy production. His alignment with certain aspects of former U.S. President Donald Trump's rhetoric has been both a source of support and criticism. (time.com)

Given these factors, the outcome of the Carleton riding race will be closely watched as an indicator of Poilievre's political standing and the broader direction of Canadian politics.