Will a human step foot on Mars by 2030?
Will a human step foot on Mars by 2030?
➕
Plus
128
Ṁ12k
2031
11%
chance
This market resolves yes if on or before Jan 1st, 2031, a human has set foot on the Martian surface.
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
2y
2y

Don't forget to apply the Elon Correction Factor

2y

Also, does a crash landing count?

2y

@firstuserhere Will at least one human be walking on Mars after the crash landing?

2y

@Mqrius the market is about setting foot, I'm not sure if the market maker intended to ask whether humans can reach Mars by 2030, or land and return

2y

@firstuserhere Setting foot is all that matters, even if they die after and don't return.

2y

Is there any evidence that we are anywhere close to this?

Which missions currently have the goal of Mars? Just SpaceX or others too?

2y

@GeorgeVii Besides SpaceX as a private entity, there's NASA itself most likely in collaboration with SpaceX. That's all as far as I know. China seems to have plans to go to the moon NET 2030ish, and Russia doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon.

2y

You step with your foot but you don't step foot. You set foot, or you step.

3y
It's good to be optimistic
3y
YES pays out before NO comes due.
2y

I wanted anytime in 2030 to count. It really should have been by Dec 31, 2030. Title should have been worded a bit better.

predictedYES 2y

@JamesGiammona Misunderstanding, I think: When I made that bet, Manifold gave M$20 loans per market for everyone to stake on whichever side they want. If you resolve NO, I lose M$20 in 7 years. If you resolve YES, I gain 36 in probably less than 7 years.

1y

@Gurkenglas you can update titles now

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules