Will Trump be sentenced by any US criminal court to a term of incarceration or home confinement by 12/2026?
Will Trump be sentenced by any US criminal court to a term of incarceration or home confinement by 12/2026?
Basic
7
Ṁ1872026
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I included home confinement in part because of the practical problems of sentencing someone statutorily entitled to Secret Service protection to prison.
Any sentence based on conviction in a criminal case counts. Pretrial confinement does not count (although this would be extremely unlikely anyway).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2027?
2% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison time before 2026?
2% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence by the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2026?
1% chance
If Trump loses the election, will he be sentenced to house arrest or incarceration by the end of 2028?
41% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2029?
6% chance
Will Trump get sentenced for any of the 34 felonies he was found guilty of before January 20, 2025?
32% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2028?
2% chance
Will Trump be considered a fugitive from justice in any US jurisdiction by the end of 2025?
3% chance