Strong AGI: AGI that performs any intellectual task at a human or superhuman level.

Credibility of the announcement is in my judgment, which will be subjective but as fair as I can make it, and I will not be betting on this market.

The year following the announcement will hopefully provide evidence to confirm or disconfirm the claim, and possibly enough time to empirically resolve the alignment question as well. Popular opinion could matter in the determination, but will probably not be the only or final determinant.

This market will extend as necessary to resolve the question.