Will there be more alignmentforum posts from 2025 than 2024?
Basic
1
Ṁ202026
59%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will count posts on the website at the start of 2026. If posts have disappeared in the meantime or are made unaccessible, I won't count them.
I'll resolve to the percentage of:
posts_from_2025 / (posts_from_2024 + posts_from_2025)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
If Tetra writes [a] Lesswrong post(s) about alignment she is proud of in 2024, which subfield(s) will it be about?
In 2025, will I believe that aligning automated AI research AI should be the focus of the alignment community?
59% chance
Will Tetra make an alignment-focused LessWrong post that she is proud of by the end of 2024?
15% chance
Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?
64% chance
Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?
41% chance
Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?
38% chance
Will "Alignment Implications of LLM Successes: a De..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
37% chance
Will ""Carefully Bootstrapped Alignment" is organiz..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
30% chance
Will "Without fundamental advances, misalignment an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
46% chance
Will "What I mean by "alignment is in large part ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
14% chance