Resolution criteria

The fight takes place on December 19, 2025, at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. It is scheduled for eight 3-minute rounds. The market resolves YES if Jake Paul wins by any method (decision, knockout, technical knockout, or disqualification). It resolves NO if Anthony Joshua wins or if the fight is ruled a draw. The fight will be broadcast on Netflix.

Background

Jake Paul is a WBA-ranked cruiserweight coming off a series of emphatic wins, while Anthony Joshua is a two-time unified heavyweight world champion. Paul has accumulated a 12-1 record over the last five years by beating former UFC champions and stars with little boxing experience, smaller foes, and a nearly 60-year-old Mike Tyson. Joshua is one of the sport's most decorated champions, earning gold at the 2012 Olympics before turning pro and earning the unified heavyweight titles, though he came up short in both instances against Oleksandr Usyk for the undisputed crown. Joshua has been absent from the ring since a brutal knockout loss to Daniel Dubois in September 2024.

Considerations

Joshua is 6 feet 6 inches tall and can weigh no more than 245 pounds at the final weigh-in, while Paul is 6 feet 1 inch and typically fights around 200 pounds as a cruiserweight. Joshua will start as the huge favourite despite not having fought for more than a year. Experts note that such a substantial mismatch in experience, size and weight is risky from the perspective of the less experienced and smaller competitor.