Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025
Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025
💎
Premium
12
Ṁ6631
2026
37%
chance

If you can’t fire someone and you don’t fear legal consequences, one way to try to get someone to quit is to withhold their paycheck.

Elon Musk and associates have control of the US Treasury payment system. Resolves YES if a subset of full time federal employees, who have not been fired or furloughed, have their regular paychecks withheld or delayed. Resolves YES if an attempt to change the functioning of the payroll system results in an error that causes federal employees to go unpaid, whether intentional or not.

Note, a shutdown of the US government - where Congress does not reach an agreement to appropriate money to keep the government running - involves furloughs of federal employees who may not receive back pay. An orderly shutdown of the government would not be enough to resolve YES.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules