Which of the following events will happen first?
Which of the following events will happen first?
Basic
30
แน17152030
0.5%
A military coup seizes power in a G8 country
0.3%
A nuclear weapon is used on the battlefield (not a test)
0.5%
Bitcoin price falls to $10,000
3%
Bitcoin price reaches $200,000
0.3%
Bitcoin recognised as legal tender in at least five G8 countries
3%
Both Biden and Trump have died
0.3%
Football team AS Roma builds a new stadium and plays the first official game in it
1.6%
Forbes announced the world's first trillionaire
61%
Half-Life 3 is released
0.3%
Jimmy Carter turns 102 years old
4%
Man walks on the moon again
23%
Taiwan is annexed by China
0.3%
Taylor Swift successfully concludes a second pregnancy
0.5%
The number of judges on the US Supreme Court becomes higher than the current 9
0.4%
The year 2030 begins (and none of the other options has happened)
Market resolves when one of the options becomes true, or if the year 2029 ends and none has happened yet.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEightโs performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 โ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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