Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at the time of its closure, the probability displayed is below 50%. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The probability is determined by the market's consensus estimate of the event's likelihood, as reflected in the final trading price.

Background

Prediction markets aggregate individual forecasts to produce a collective probability estimate for specific events. The market price, ranging from 0 to 100%, represents the consensus probability of the event occurring. For instance, a price of 45% indicates a 45% perceived chance of the event happening. (investopedia.com)

Considerations

• Market Dynamics: Prices fluctuate based on participants' trades and new information. A price below 50% suggests a collective belief that the event is more likely not to occur than to occur.

• Liquidity and Participation: The accuracy of the market's probability estimate depends on active participation and sufficient liquidity. Limited trading activity can lead to less reliable probabilities. (fastercapital.com)

• Resolution Transparency: Clear and objective resolution criteria are essential to maintain trust and accuracy in prediction markets. Ambiguities can lead to disputes and undermine the market's effectiveness. (lesswrong.com)