Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan (CNY) against the US dollar (USD) reaches or exceeds 8.00 CNY per 1 USD at any point during the 2025 calendar year (January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025). The market resolves to NO if the exchange rate remains below 8.00 CNY per 1 USD throughout the entire year.

Resolution will be based on official exchange rates as reported by major financial data providers such as Bloomberg, Reuters, or the People's Bank of China.

Background

The USD/CNY exchange rate represents how many Chinese yuan are needed to purchase one US dollar. As of late 2024, the exchange rate has been fluctuating around 7.0-7.3 yuan per dollar.

Most financial institutions forecast the USD/CNY exchange rate to remain between 7.0 and 7.6 throughout 2025:

• MUFG, Goldman Sachs, and UBS predict rates around 7.50 by the end of 2025

• RBC Capital Markets forecasts a rate of 7.55 by the end of 2025

• LongForecast projects a range between 7.224 and 7.499 for April 2025

Considerations

The yuan's exchange rate is influenced by several factors including:

• US-China trade relations

• Federal Reserve and People's Bank of China monetary policies

• China's economic growth and capital controls

• Global economic conditions

While current forecasts suggest the yuan is unlikely to reach 8.00 against the dollar in 2025, unexpected economic developments or policy changes could significantly impact exchange rates.