Trying to give pretty precise resolution criteria-- will do my best to refine and resolve in the spirit of the question, and won't be betting.

Resolves YES if anything like these happen:

• Alphabet sells off Waymo to a competitor and no longer has controlling ownership (e.g. no longer has >50% of voting shares). - IPO does not count

• Waymo's driverless (Level 4 or 5) aspirations are abandoned for the immediate future. (For example, instead Waymo could aim for more conservative long-term self-driving goals: Level 3 [manned self-driving] or Level 2 [ADAS like Tesla "FSD"]). This would require Waymo or Alphabet announcing such.

• All public robotaxi ride-hail operations are shut down. ("Public" meaning non-Waymo/Alphabet employees, regardless of fares or waitlists).

Resolves NO if nothing like this happens by the close time.

Some examples of things that wouldn't result in an immediate YES resolution:

• Paid ride-hail operations shut down, but unpaid rides to some members of the public continue.

• Waymo decides to pivot back to persuing self-driving trucking for some reason but meanwhile public ride-hail operations continue.