Will Hybrid Air Vehicles sell >0 Airlander 10 before 2029?
Will Hybrid Air Vehicles sell >0 Airlander 10 before 2029?
3
Ṁ1022028
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Hybrid Air Vehicles claim "we're ready for our next challenge - building a production line for 24 aircraft per year, certifying Airlander 10, and delivering it to its first customers in 2028". This market asks: will they deliver a single unit?
Resolves YES on confirmation of any customer taking delivery of an Airlander 10 (no other models will be accepted), or resolves NO on 31st December 2028 if no such confirmation is received.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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