Will Elon Musk run for elected office (USA).
Will Elon Musk run for elected office (USA).
Plus
13
Ṁ10702030
5%
Before the end of 2026
8%
Before the end of 2028
10%
Before the end of 2030
77%
Candidacy for a Political Office: This includes any elected position within the political structure of the United States of America. It must be a recognized office that is part of a governmental structure, including local, state/provincial, or federal levels.
If he does run for office before the end of 2030 the bucket containing the correct year will resolve YES and all other answers will resolve NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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