Who will be the next James Bond / 007? (775Ṁ subsidy)
Who will be the next James Bond / 007? (775Ṁ subsidy)
Basic
31
Ṁ13k2026
0.5%
Daryl McCormack
0.3%
Sam Claflin
0.3%
Theo James
7%
Damson Idris
0.3%
Paapa Essiedu
0.5%
Robert Pattinson
11%
Henry Cavill
7%
James Norton
54%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
0.3%
Regé-Jean Page
0.1%
Cillian Murphy
0.2%
Tom Hardy
1.5%
Charlie Hunnam
1.3%
Dev Patel
17%
I added some plausible candidates; feel free to add new names!
Market will resolve when the actor or actress for the role of 007 in the next EON James Bond movie has definitely been cast (say when production is underway; or it otherwise seems unambigiously final who will have the role).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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https://manifold.markets/OmarB/who-will-be-007-after-daniel-craig?r=WmlkZGxldHdpeA
You can get a much better price on Aaron Taylor-Johnson here, free arb (i.e. please bet that much cheaper one up so I can sell because I don't really feel like holding this til resolution)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
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