Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of the Moon, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2028 (and after 2023). For the purpose of this market, a flyby of the Moon must occur within a distance of no more than 100 thousand kilometers from its surface.

Questions with the same criteria:

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2025?NO‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?4%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2027?63%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2028?75%‌ (this question)

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2029?86%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2030?88%‌

Human venture onto the Lunar surface questions:

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2025?NO‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2026?2%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2027?5%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2028?14%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2029?48%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?65%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2031?76%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2032?77%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2033?79%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2034?85%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2035?87%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2036?86%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2037?82%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2038?90%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2039?90%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2040?93%‌

Other questions:

Will we get AGI before 2028?32%‌

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%‌

To meet the criteria, the human aboard the spacecraft must remain awake for at least one continuous hour during the period when the spacecraft is within the 50 thousand kilometers threshold from the Moon. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute (prohibiting some, hypothetical, methods of stasis).

The safe return of the human passenger is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. The human must be alive as the spacecraft reaches the 50 thousand kilometers threshold from the Moon. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of crossing this threshold, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least one hour while the spacecraft remains under the specified distance from the Moon.

Additionally, the human on board must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body is permissible within the context of this question.

Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FullMoon2020.tif