Will a LLM/elicit be able to do proper causal modeling (identifying papers that didn't control for covariates) in 2024?
Basic
1
Ṁ10Jan 1
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Especially the melatonin=>longevity paper Mike Lustgarten tweeted
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will "large reasoning models" significantly outperform traditional LLMs in creative writing by 2026?
45% chance
Will LLMs be the best reasoning models on these dates?
By the end of June 2025, will closed-source LLMs increase access to pandemic agents?
50% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
72% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <500 billion parameters?
24% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <1 trillion parameters?
42% chance
Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?
34% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <1 trillion parameters?
26% chance
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <1 trillion parameters?
40% chance
LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?
43% chance