[Amplified 10x, read description] Will Andrew Cuomo be elected mayor of New York City in 2025?
13
Ṁ4660Nov 10
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/cash/who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-new-yo resolves to Andrew Cuomo 100%.
If these conditions are not fulfilled, then I will generate a random integer between 1 and 10 inclusive using @FairlyRandom. If it turns out to be 1, this market resolves NO. Otherwise, this market resolves N/A.
Trading guide:
The purpose of this market is to allow precise betting on long odds for this event. Given the resolution criteria, a fair price for this market would be x/(x+(1-x)/10), where x is the actual probability of the event. For example, if you think this has a 3% chance of happening, this market should be at ~24%.
Other reference values:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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