There are multiple unsecured bets being made regarding the UFO topic, particularly among effective altruists and on the lesswrong.com forum. At least one person has collected more than $500,000 in unsecured bets. One example is the following:
While @EliezerYudkowsky claimed otherwise during a debate with Destiny at the September 23, 2023 Manifest conference, putting "real money" at stake in this manner is not a sign of certainty because nearly all of these bets are uncollectable debt.
They have no written contract, would cost more to litigate than the value of the debt, are owed to foreign creditors, and can be easily wiped out in bankruptcy filings. The people on the small end of the bet, however, usually advanced money up front to people on the large end, and therefore could end up in a loss even in the event of a correct prediction.
This market will resolve to YES if anyone - anywhere on the Internet - actually shows how certain he or she is by making a secured bet on this topic. The criteria are as follows:
A written contract must be signed
Both sides must either give money to an escrow, or the contract must delineate specific secured assets to be seized upon nonpayment, such as a lien providing the ability to foreclose on a house
The odds and other exact terms are not relevant, but at least $10,000 must be at stake. If a bet was already made but not discovered before market creation, the market still resolves to YES. If no such bet is identified by December 31, 2024, or if a bet is claimed but no evidence is provided, the market will resolve to NO.
1,000
3.00