Sonic the Hedgehog (2020) had a take of $148,974,665 domestically at the box office, according to Box Office Mojo: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt3794354

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (2022) managed to top that, getting $190,872,904 domestically at the box office, according to Box Office Mojo: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt12412888

If, by the end of the initial run of Sonic the Hedgehog 3, it has not grossed more than $190,872,904 domestically according to Box Office Mojo's numbers, this market will resolve NO.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt18259086

If it grosses more than $190,872,904 domestically, this market will resolve YES.