Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2028?
Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2028?
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For this question to resolve YES, reports/publications/data from a sufficiently conventionally high-status source (e.g. the UN Population Division, the World Bank, the CIA World Factbook, the Population Reference Bureau) need to come out before 2028 claiming that the world's Total Fertility Rate is below 2.1 (replacement level can change depending on mortality rates, but 2.1 is the figure for the purposes of this question).
Not that publications after 2028 that make this claim are not eligible to count towards this question, even if they concern time periods before 2028. The actual claim itself that humanity has fallen below replacement level needs to be made before 2028.
I will use my discretion on what sources I will count. Feel free to ask about sources ahead of time.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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