Will armed conflict break out in Bosnia and Herzegovina before September 1, 2025?
Will armed conflict break out in Bosnia and Herzegovina before September 1, 2025?
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Ṁ153Sep 1
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Milorad Dodik's separatist actions have raised concerns about potential renewed ethnic tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This market resolves YES if there is an outbreak of armed conflict (defined as organized armed violence resulting in at least 25 casualties) in Bosnia and Herzegovina before September 1, 2025. It resolves NO if no such conflict occurs by that date.
Resolution source: Reports from https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/03/17/republika-srpska-the-next-potential-flashpoint-in-europe/ or other reputable international news sources.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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