Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
14
Ṁ7472031
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the specified period, the U.S. economy meets both of the following conditions:
1. Duration and Depth of Economic Decline:
The U.S. experiences a continuous period of economic downturn lasting at least 24 months, during which there is a cumulative decline in real GDP of 10% or more.
2. Unemployment Rate:
The national unemployment rate reaches 15% or higher for six consecutive months.
Data Sources:
GDP data will be sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Unemployment data will be sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
53% chance
Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?
81% chance
Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
25% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
55% chance
Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?
38% chance
Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will there be a global depression in the 2020s?
36% chance
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?
25% chance
Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030?
15% chance
Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034?
34% chance