Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on July 9, 2025, the United States imposes a 50% tariff on goods imported from the European Union (EU). The determination will be based on official announcements from the U.S. government, such as statements from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative or the White House, and corroborated by reputable news sources. If no such tariff is in effect on that date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

On May 23, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a proposed 50% tariff on all EU imports, citing stalled trade negotiations and a significant trade deficit with the EU. (apnews.com) However, following a conversation with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, President Trump agreed to delay the implementation of these tariffs until July 9, 2025, to allow for further negotiations. (apnews.com)

Considerations

• Negotiation Outcomes: The delay until July 9 provides a window for the U.S. and EU to negotiate and potentially reach an agreement that could prevent the imposition of the tariffs. Traders should monitor ongoing discussions and any interim agreements that may influence the final decision.

• Economic Impacts: The proposed tariffs have significant implications for various sectors, including automotive, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture. The EU has expressed readiness to retaliate if the tariffs are imposed, which could escalate into a broader trade conflict. (reuters.com)

• Policy Announcements: Official statements from both U.S. and EU officials in the lead-up to July 9 will be critical indicators of the likelihood of the tariffs being implemented as initially proposed.

  Resolution criteria

  This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on July 9, 2025, the United States imposes a 50% tariff on goods imported from the European Union (EU). The determination will be based on official announcements from the U.S. government, such as statements from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative or the White House, and corroborated by reputable news sources. If no such tariff is in effect on that date, the market will resolve to "No".

  Background

  On May 23, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a proposed 50% tariff on all EU imports, citing stalled trade negotiations and a significant trade deficit with the EU. However, following a conversation with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, President Trump agreed to delay the implementation of these tariffs until July 9, 2025, to allow for further negotiations.

  Considerations

  • Negotiation Outcomes: The delay until July 9 provides a window for the U.S. and EU to negotiate and potentially reach an agreement that could prevent the imposition of the tariffs. Traders should monitor ongoing discussions and any interim agreements that may influence the final decision.

  • Economic Impacts: The proposed tariffs have significant implications for various sectors, including automotive, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture. The EU has expressed readiness to retaliate if the tariffs are imposed, which could escalate into a broader trade conflict.

  • Policy Announcements: Official statements from both U.S. and EU officials in the lead-up to July 9 will be critical indicators of the likelihood of the tariffs being implemented as initially proposed.