If Trump wins the 2024 U.S. election, will voters “not have to do it anymore”?
If Trump wins the 2024 U.S. election, will voters “not have to do it anymore”?
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Trump told the crowd to “get out and vote, just this time”, adding that “you won’t have to do it any more.”
Resolves YES if Trump wins the 2024 election and there is no election in 2028 due to an authoritarian takeover of the U.S. government. If there is no election in 2028 due to other reasons, such as war (due to exogenous factors that are not related to any Trump-related takeover) or natural disaster or act of god, this question resolves NA. Otherwise this question resolves NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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