Will 5% of Americans believe technology is most important problem in the US before the end of 2025, according to Gallup?
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Gallup has polls Americans monthly asking them "What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?"
The list of answers is long and includes "the advancement of computers/technology", which polls below 1% and often below 0.5%.
The advancement of artificial intelligence may cause respondents to rate technology's advance as more important.
This question resolves YES if Gallup reports that 5% or more of Americans polled assign "the advancement of computers/technology" as the most important problem facing the United States in any month in 2025. Otherwise this question resolves NO on 1 Jan 2026.
Will AI, computers, and technology crack 5% in Gallup's polling before the end of 2025?
Inspired by The AI Digest's question on this Gallup polling.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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