Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

• OpenAI releases a new model that demonstrably outperforms GPT-4o across standard benchmarks

• The model achieves this performance without requiring additional compute at inference/test time

• The release occurs before 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2024

The market will resolve NO if:

• No such model is released by the deadline

• A released model requires additional compute at test time to outperform GPT-4o

• The released model does not clearly outperform GPT-4o on standard benchmarks

Considerations

• "Release" means the model is made available to paying users, either via API (even only the highest tiers) or via ChatGPT

• Performance comparisons will be based on official benchmarks and independent testing

• If OpenAI announces but does not actually release a model by the deadline, this resolves NO

• Updates to GPT-4o don't qualify as yes