
Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research?
Basic
6
Ṁ123Dec 31
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves if and when we have a language model that generates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research in any field and is also an agent.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?
33% chance
Will the first AGI be a large language model?
55% chance
Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?
74% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
67% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Will a Nobel prize be awarded for the invention of AGI before 2050?
26% chance
Will an AI receive an IgNobel Prize in 2025?
29% chance
Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?
83% chance
Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
26% chance