OpenAI DevDay predictions
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104
Ṁ78k
resolved Nov 9
Resolved
YES
“GPT-4 Turbo” released
Resolved
YES
Someone on twitter will make fun of Sam Altman
Resolved
YES
A platform for custom AI agents is announced
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 finetuning is released
Resolved
YES
Ability to create and share your own GPT
Resolved
YES
Text to speech available via API
Resolved
YES
API access to DALLE-3 announced
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 vision announced to be available via API
Resolved
YES
Announcement of a Marketplace - Search and deploy chatbots created by other users
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 context size > 32k tokens (anything larger than the current 32k model)
Resolved
YES
Ability to use uploaded files as references for the conversation
Resolved
YES
OpenAI announces ability to create bots with custom instruction messages through the ChatGPT app
Resolved
YES
OpenAI will use the word "AGI" anywhere in the official announcement(post, livestream)
Resolved
YES
Longer context window (>32k for GPT-4, >16k for GPT-3.5) announced
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 speed improvement
Resolved
YES
"Gizmo" announcement: Chatbots with custom tools, actions, files
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 context size >= 100k tokens
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 and GPT-3.5-Turbo-16k fine-tuning
Resolved
YES
Full access to a model (weights, embeddings, etc) is announced (even if with a waitlist)
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 price reduction

Announcement post

Please join us for our first developer conference, OpenAI DevDay, on November 6, 2023 in San Francisco.

The one-day event will bring hundreds of developers from around the world together with the team at OpenAI to preview new tools and exchange ideas. In-person attendees will also be able to join breakout sessions led by members of OpenAI’s technical staff.

“We’re looking forward to showing our latest work to enable developers to build new things,” said Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. 

Feel free to submit anything (serious/fun/techincal, anything goes) relevant to predicting things about this event. Things not related to the event will be N/Ad.

The event will be streamed at this youtube link

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I think this was Q🌟 , which was announced today. I wasn't sure about its exact nature, so it wasn't a "product" it was an algorithm/technique.... (star = sun)

/Mira/will-openai-launch-a-new-product-wi

looks like the profits are bugged...

There's Free, Plus, and then goes straight to "Contact Sales":

ChatGPT Enterprise (openai.com)

You've always had the option to Contact Sales, the pricing hasn't changed, so this should resolve NO.

Resolves NO I think. A dedicated "unlimited" instance is about the same cost as it's been all year. API costs went down but are capped. My ChatGPT is still limited to 50 messages.

Resolves NO. Highest I see is 13k.

wait what? When did they release a model?

@firstuserhere I see, thanks!

Actual enterprise starts at like $2 million. But sure you could probably buy it if you really wanted to.

Should this resolve N/A?

@HedShock I think that one's NO since it refers to 32k specifically, even if it's made moot by a larger 128k offering.

It's a whole day-long event though, right? So we can't resolve stuff NO just yet?

@Mira the event happened, they'll expand about these announcements and give demos and all that but we cannot verify that stuff now, so.

if some big announcement happens today anyway, I will re-resolve it to the correct answer.

Was message cap increase announced or discussed? Why is the "full access to a model" option so close to 50%? @Mira did you notice sunshine branding anywhere? I didn't but I wasn't on the lookout for it anyway

@firstuserhere For models, they released a Stable Diffusion VAE with better text consistency timed for DevDay(but released on Github 18 hours ago):

https://github.com/openai/consistencydecoder

@firstuserhere Also they announced Whisper V3, which IIUC is usually fully open sourced with weights

@theshortbread that's brilliant! Any objections to a YES?

State wasn't what I had in mind for this one, it was more about the regular API (saving/reusing previous user and assistant messages), which didn't happen afaik.
Can resolve No

Yud did not, in fact, fearmongers about AI during the DevDay stream.

@jgyou unexpected outcome

@firstuserhere it seems like you should have waited to resolve this one until the end of the day.

Ok i've resolved the clear cut ones. I wasn't able to watch the full event, someone help me figure out the resolutions to the unresolved options.

@firstuserhere oh I just reopened but if you want it closed you can close it

@Gen It's better to close now because i've asked people for help with resolution of the unresolved options, and do not want their trades to influence their judgements in helping with the resolution

I will reopen for the options that refer to things yet to happen, after resolving the predictions for the event.

@firstuserhere Not sure some of the time-constraints of your resolutions were clear prior to today.

@Broseph Ok, i will see what I can do

Edit: I've asked admins to unresolve the options (some or all is up to them), and re-resolve to the correct thingy if need be. Highly unlikely, but there you go.

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