Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2030?
Basic
5
Ṁ3212030
3%
Song, T., Jia, Y., Yu, G. et al. Unconventional superconducting quantum criticality in monolayer WTe2. Nat. Phys. (2024)
2%
Amor, C., Fernández-Maestre, I., Chowdhury, S. et al. Prophylactic and long-lasting efficacy of senolytic CAR T cells against age-related metabolic dysfunction. Nat Aging (2024)
1.9%
Wang, J., Gangavarapu, T., Yan, J. et al. MambaByte: Token-free Selective State Space Model. arXiv:2401.13660 (2024)
6%
Grau-Moya, J., Genewein, T., Hutter, M. et al. Learning Universal Predictors. arXiv:2401.14953 (2024)
3%
Wang, L., Zhao, J., Du, Y. et al. PoCo: Policy Composition from and for Heterogeneous Robot Learning. arXiv:2402.02511 (2024)
6%
Xu, R., Sun, Y., Chen, C. et al. Robust Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift via Physics-Informed Structural Causal Model. arXiv:2403.15025 (2024)
78%
Resolution: In January 2030, after this market is closed, Manifold will be polled with the top 5 answers from this market. When the poll closes one week later, this market will resolve to the winner of that poll.
If one of the top 5 answers to this market is not an actual paper first published in 2024 it will be skipped and the next paper ranking paper will be included in the poll instead.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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