[Metaculus] Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?
[Metaculus] Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?
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Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if a HIV-1 vaccine candidate is authorized by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada at any point before January 1, 2032. Any kind of approval, including emergency approval, would count.
For resolution, there will be no requirements on the demonstrated efficacy or safety of the vaccine; approval by any of the 4 government agencies is the sole criterion
This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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