[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
➕
Plus
19
Ṁ1625
2026
27%
chance

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, on January 1, 2026, Russia has de facto control of specific key locations which it currently controls as of October 30, 2023, and also controls two or more additional specified locations that it currently does not. Resolution will be determined according to maps produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The relevant locations are listed below, and also shown in a map embedded in the background section.

Russia must have control of at least two of the following locations:

  • Mikolaiv: Admiralska St, 20, Mykolaiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukraine, 54000

  • Zaporizhzhia: Sobornyi Ave, 206, Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhia Oblast

  • Kharkiv: Konstytutsii Square, 7, Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, 61000

  • Odesa: Dums'ka Square, 1, Odesa, Odesa Oblast, Ukraine, 65000

  • Lozova: Lozova City Council, Vulytsya Yaroslava Mudroho, Lozova, Kharkivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 64600

  • Sumy: Sumy City Council, Nezalezhnosti Square, 2, Sumy, Sums'ka oblast, Ukraine, 40000

  • Chernihiv: Chernihiv City Council, Mahistrats'ka St, 7, Chernihiv, Chernihivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 14000

Russia must also have control of all of the following locations:

  • Simferopol - Ulitsa Karla Marksa, 18, Simferopol

  • Nova Kakhovka - Горсовет, Prospekt Dniprovsʹkyy, 23, Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, Ukraine, 74900

  • Svatove - Avtoshlyakh R 66, Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine, 92600

  • Donetsk - Artema St, 98, Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 83000

  • Tokmak - Central St, 45, Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 71700

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

#Metaculus
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules