Will Trump sign an executive order in 2025 that dissolves the Department of Education and is not overturned by courts?

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2026

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The executive order needs to be signed in 2025, but I will wait until the judicial process is done to resolve this market. Judicial actions that do not happen in 2025 still affect the resolution of this market. I will extend it's closing date as necessary. If a judge overturns an executive order, but a higher court reverses their decision and the case is not appealed further, this resolves YES.

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What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

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