Most effective strategy in prediction markets

Ṁ434

Dec 1

93%

Monitor news and act quickly

85%

Monitor new markets and trade early

78%

Develop a good sense of probability and think independently

76%

Arbitrage

76%

Nothing ever happens

72%

Follow most accurate market (Polymarket?)

69%

Follow good traders

62%

Build technical prediction models

59%

Extracting residual liquidity in resolving markets

57%

Use historical data and analytics

55%

Gather information unknown to average traders

50%

Anti-follow bad traders

48%

Buy low sell high before resolution to reduce risks

43%

Bet on rare events

20%

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What trading strategies do you find most effective (minimize input, maximize output) in prediction markets?

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It's funny. I don't do any of these really.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen What do you do then?

@kamn Not easy to describe, apart from the fact that it involves very disparate ways of thinking, never holding slavishly to a strategy, but letting the market define how I approach it.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen How about "Develop a good sense of probability and think independently"?

@vdb My sense of probabilities is probably piss poor, espescially at the extremes. I may be more adept at seeing things as complexly as possible.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yeah that's hard for me to put into any strategy.

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