Resolution Criteria:
The question will resolve to YES if at least one of the following occurs:
The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 50% or higher
The labor force participation rate drops by 50% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%. In this context the LFPR should fall to 31.3% or lower.
Fine Print:
This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week. If that number goes from 40 hours/week to 20 hours/week or less that will not matter to the resolution of this question.
Background:
There is controversy on whether Al will take away human jobs. The way to resolve this is to know whether Al will create more jobs than it destroys. The best way to measure the net jobs is to calculate (new jobs - lost jobs) is the unemployment rate. The broader unemployment rate (U6) is used to include “discouraged workers” who have stopped looking for work. The broader unemployment rate (U6) should be sufficient for resolving this question. The Labor Force Participation Rate is used as a backup measurement in case the U6 unemployment rate turns out to be unreliable.
1,000
3.00The confounder here is that it requires people who are permanently out of work to survive long enough to be counted, while being supported by less than 50% of the population actually producing goods and services. This requires a number of technical and political decision points to go very well, in a way that there's currently little indication that they will.
@SteveBachelor I don’t think it is reasonable to assume people who lose their jobs to AI will starve to death. Mass starvation has never occurred in developed countries for more than 2 centuries.