What movie will win Best Picture? ๐|๐ฌ 2026 Oscars
What movie will win Best Picture? ๐|๐ฌ 2026 Oscars
2
แน13262026
34%
The Lost Bus
34%
Highest 2 Lowest
34%
The Ballad of a Small Player
17%
Frankenstein
17%
The Roses
17%
Michael
17%
Mother Mary
17%
Sentimental Value
17%
The History of Sound
17%
Hamnet
17%
After the Hunt
17%
Eddington
15%
One Battle After Another
10%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEightโs performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 โ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00