https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan_Airlines_Flight_8243
Resolves YES if by close date a relevant official body of the Russian federation or Chechen republic accept most of the responsibility for the crash.
Relevant bodies include: president, parliament, air crash investigation bodies
Doesn't include: individual investigators speaking for themselves, bloggers, journalists
The statement must acknowledge that Russian/Chechen actions were a primary cause of the crash, but need not admit complete responsibility (so e.g. "Yes, it was hit by out missile, but if the crew immediately cooperated with our air traffic controllers, the plane would have landed safely" or "the plane wouldn't be hit if it followed XXX procedures" resolves YES)
I will not trade due to the soft resolution criteria.
Update 2024-28-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarifications from the Creator:
If the investigation officially concludes that the plane was hit by a Russian missile or similar statements are made, this constitutes a clear YES.
If not, the resolution will depend on parsing the details of the official statement.
Update 2024-28-12 (PST): - If official compensation is provided by the Russian side as if at fault (as demanded by Azerbaijan), this will resolve YES. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76003
Vladimir Putin apologized for the fact that the tragic incident occurred in Russian airspace [...] It was noted in the conversation that the strictly following schedule Azerbaijani passenger aircraft repeatedly tried to land at Grozny airport. At the same time Grozny, Mozdok and Vladikavkaz were attacked by Ukrainian combat drones, and Russian air defenses were repelling these attacks.
@vlads This is still being reported as a bit less than accepting responsibility:
https://www.npr.org/2024/12/28/nx-s1-5241758/azerbaijani-plane-crash-putin-apologizes
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I quote the official website of the President of the Russian Federation, and I stop at the part from which the conclusion follows. In the Kremlin-reported conversation with Aliyev, Putin noted the fact that Russian anti-aircraft systems were active at the time, which is a clear implication of the culprit in my opinion as a Russian native, and hence an admission of guilt, as much as can be expected from Putin.
The NPR writer may be failing to parse this implication, or motivated to not notice it. The market is on whether the responsibility is accepted, not on the competence of Western media in interpreting Kremlin statements (more so now that the ability to read between Russian lines hasn't been in demand for over 30 years).
Russian sources read it as an admission of guilt. Here is VCHK-OGPU:
The Kremlin has admitted that the passenger plane was shot down over Chechnya by air defense systems.
And Novaya Gazeta Europa:
Aliyev's press service stated that Putin apologized to him for the fact that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane "was subjected to physical and technical impact from outside in Russian airspace."
@vlads thanks. To me, this is borderline. If the investigation officially concludes that the plane was hit by Russian missile or some further statements to that effect are made, this is a clear YES. If not, we'll have to try to parse the details of the official statement.
@AIBear Also, if there's official compensation as if the Russian side was at fault (as demanded by Azerbaijan), that would also be enough to resolve YES, given the statement above.