this is one of the most ludicrous markets I have ever seen in all of Manifold, safe to say

Temporarily unlisting this market, so this isn't the first market people see when they log on to Manifold...

@SG who do you think you are? If the people want to bet on this, allow them to.

@AUTOMATA I would like to clarify the resolution criteria. Please respond at the earliest convenience.

My lawyers have been researching this market all night. They inform me that according to Wikipedia, the "administrative units" of Pakistan currently comprise:

four provinces, one federal territory, and two disputed territories: the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan; the Islamabad Capital Territory; and the administrative territories of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit–Baltistan.

If the USA becomes an additional "province" of Pakistan alongside Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, & Balochistan, resolution is simple. However, if the USA becomes part of Pakistan but instead as a "disputed territory", along with "Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit–Baltistan", how will this market resolve?

@Ziddletwix Pakistan would swiftly resolve any issues surrounding a disputed status. In the unlikely event that America is not incorporated as an official province, the market would resolve to no.

@AUTOMATA Understood, thank you.

@Ziddletwix Why are you so sure of “no”?

@AUTOMATA non-epistemic trades, emotional hedge in case it doesn’t happen

@Ziddletwix makes sense, I was afraid you were a fool.

Can the no votes offer some insight into their view? This seems open and shut to me.

@AUTOMATA Not enough time. Like you, I don't see how this fails to be the case, but it will likely be a few more years.

@Mana I’m glad you recognize the inevitability of this. I guess we’ll see how things go.

@IncompleteOmega It's tough to say, given the political and economic state of the world right now. However, it is hard to ignore the fact that, if the USA became a Pakistani province, it would thrive. I've talked to the president of the USA personally, and he says he is set on this decision. For these reasons, I voted YES.

YES.

Bet 2 manas on yes.

@mariopasquato And? What compelled you to share this?

@mariopasquato I had bet only 1 on YES, but now I've bought two more just to one-up you (and because it's where the smart money is).

3000 black jets of Allah!!!

I don't think the United States will become a province of Pakistan.

@Mana bold stance

@Mana if the market creator resolves this YES regardless, will a mod intervene?

@mariopasquato ?

@mariopasquato Mods intervene if a market is clearly misresolved, yes. I don't expect that'll be necessary though

@Mana Why would you say something so controversial and yet so brave

Are people buying yes as a social experiment or something?

End date is this year, so it's not even like you can have some crazy idea about the long run.

Am i missing something obvious?

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso arrogance will be your downfall.

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso You're an experiment and you just failed!